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Large-scale evacuation planning with a digital twin


When a flood or wildfire threatens, every minute counts. Yet answering the most important question, can we get everyone out of the area in time, used to take months: an external traffic study, a thick report, and conclusions that were outdated as soon as the situation changed. The evacuation tool on the Digitwin platform changes that. Emergency management authorities now run large-scale evacuation scenarios themselves, and run them again whenever they need to.


Large-scale evacuation planning in a digital twin


The evacuation tool is a module on the Digitwin platform, developed by Argaleo and Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) for Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch national infrastructure and water agency, and the safety regions of the southern Netherlands. The tool simulates how an area empties during an evacuation: which routes fill up, where bottlenecks form, and how much time is needed to get residents and tourists to safety.

Under the bonnet, the tool runs the MARPLE traffic model from Rijkswaterstaat and TU Delft. As a user, you’d never know it: you select the area to be cleared and the destinations on the map, and the tool does the maths. The results appear as a 3D visualisation in the digital twin, showing traffic flows, queue formation for each area and time-series charts. A complex traffic analysis becomes immediately understandable to everyone around the table.

scenariosetup_web - Evacuatie scenario instellen in digital twin

What can you do with it?


Realistic scenarios, set up by you


No evacuation ever goes by the book. Some people stay at home despite the advice, others have already left before the official order, and not everyone has their own transport or can manage without help. In the evacuation tool, you model that reality for each area: the share of people staying behind, early leavers, tourists, people needing assistance, people without transport, vehicle occupancy and the departure curve. Every parameter comes with a scientifically backed range, so you never have to guess.

What used to be a separate study by specialists is now a scenario an emergency planner runs independently, and runs again as soon as the situation changes.

Test measures before they’re needed


What happens if a crucial bridge is lost? Does redirecting traffic to another route help? In the tool, you close road sections or entire areas and see the effect on outbound traffic straight away. That means evacuation plans and traffic measures are tested in advance, instead of discovering during a crisis that a route clogs up. Comparing scenarios side by side turns difficult decisions into informed ones: not gut feeling, but calculated alternatives.

Analyseren van scenario in digital twin

Results everyone understands


The outcomes are not pages of tables but animated visuals in the digital twin: traffic flows animated across the network, queue formation for each origin area in 3D, and time-series charts of inbound and outbound traffic. A mayor, operational commander or communications officer sees at a glance where the pressure builds. That makes the tool as valuable in planning as it is in exercises and executive briefings.

Projectteam: Henk Taale, Marcel Matthijsse, Ellen Moens, Frank Hommers en Jeroen Steenbakkers

“
In a disaster, speed and cooperation are crucial. This tool lets us see where the bottlenecks are during the planning phase, and how we can act more effectively when things really go wrong.
Ellen Moens
Rijkswaterstaat, the Dutch national infrastructure and water agency
“
In Zeeland, we worked with our partners to develop a practical, future-proof solution. This collaboration shows what can be achieved when emergency management authorities, national agencies and research institutions reinforce each other.
Marcel Matthijsse
Zeeland Safety Region

Proven in practice

The evacuation tool was developed in the Zuid6 Fieldlab, with the Zeeland Safety Region as the test area, and subsequently tested and refined with the safety regions of Utrecht, Groningen, Limburg-Noord and Fryslân and several departments of Rijkswaterstaat. Its performance has been validated in widely differing areas, from the coast to the river delta. Read how the tool came about, or see why it was nominated for the Computable Award 2026 in the Government Project of the Year category.

Like the rest of the Digitwin platform, the evacuation tool was built entirely by a Dutch team and runs on servers in the Netherlands: digitally sovereign, with no dependency on foreign cloud platforms.


Frequently asked questions

Who is the evacuation tool for?

For emergency management authorities, national infrastructure agencies, municipalities and regional governments preparing for large-scale evacuations, for example ahead of flooding, wildfires or hazardous material incidents. Emergency planners work with it directly, without needing a background in traffic engineering.

Which evacuation scenarios can you simulate?

Any scenario in which an area needs to be cleared. You select origin areas and destinations on the map, set the departure parameters and run the simulation. Road closures and traffic measures can be added directly.

How realistic are the simulations?

The simulations run on the MARPLE traffic model developed by Rijkswaterstaat and TU Delft, which has been used for traffic analysis for years. The departure parameters are backed by scientific research and the tool has been validated with multiple Dutch safety regions.

Do I need traffic engineering expertise?

No. What used to be a separate study by specialists is now a scenario an emergency planner sets up and runs independently. The results are immediately usable in crisis planning sessions.

Does this work outside the Netherlands?

The method is generic: the tool works on any road network for which network and population data is available. Contact us to discuss what’s possible in your area.


See what the evacuation tool can do for your area

We are happy to demonstrate the tool using your own area and your own scenarios.